Politico is doing an exclusive report today on new poll-study-11% of Evangelical and Catholic 2016 Trump voters are leaving Trump and going to Biden.
Vote Common Good (a group I helped found run by my friend Doug Pagitt) sponsored and have launched a one-of-a-kind poll that is the largest in this cycle, in Swing States, among faith voters. It is also unique in that Behavioral Change Experts conducted it at USC, Duke, and UNC. The poll looks at Trump and Biden’s sins and virtues and who Evangelicals and Catholics will be voting for on Nov 3.
Here are the report and a summary.
The two factors that have moved E and C voters to Biden is Kindness and Competency. So, the key point to push is to call faith voters to a “Community of Kindness” and away from Trump. People want to believe they are kind, If voting for trump puts them on the wrong side of kindness, then they will leave Trump.
When the story drops on Thursday, please share broadly.
Faith, Hope, and Love will bring a change on Election Day.
-Frank
Key Findings
How Evangelicals and Catholics intend to vote in 2020 compared with their 2016 vote (see Tables 12, 13, and 17)
- The 2020 election is currently on track to produce an 11% swing towards Biden compared with 2016 among Evangelicals and Catholics, averaging across both Christian denominations and all 5 swing states surveyed.
- Among swing state Catholics, 2020 is currently on track to produce a +16% swing towards Joe Biden over the 2016 result (see Plot 1).
- Specifically, whereas Clinton lost Catholics to Trump in 2016 (R 50%/D 36%), Biden is on track to win Catholics (R 43%/D 45%).o Among swing state Evangelicals, 2020 is currently on track to produce a +7% swing towards Joe Biden over the 2016 result (see Plot 2). Whereas Clinton lost Evangelicals to Trump by a large margin in 2016 (R 59%/D 25%), Biden is on track to lose that group by a narrower margin (R 59%/D 33%).
How Evangelicals and Catholics rate the presidential candidates on the 7 cardinal virtues (kindness, generosity, humility, chastity, modesty, diligence and patience; see Tables 1 and 3a-3c).
- On average, across all virtues, 50% of respondents rated Biden as more virtuous than Trump, and 39% rated Trump as more virtuous than Biden.
- The largest gap between candidates emerged for the virtues of humility and modesty. Specifically:
- 49% of respondents view Biden as higher on humility than Trump and 22% perceive Trump as having more humility than Biden.
- 44% of respondents view Biden as more modest than Trump and 22% perceive Trump as more modest than Biden.
- Breaking out Catholics and Evangelicals, Catholics view Biden as more virtuous than Trump, whereas Evangelicals view both candidates as about equally virtuous.
- Among Catholics, 55% rate Biden as more virtuous than Trump, and 34% rate Trump as more virtuous than Biden.
- Among Evangelicals, 45% rate Biden as more virtuous than Trump, and 44% rate Trump as more virtuous than Biden.
How Evangelicals and Catholics rate the presidential candidates on the 7 deadly sins (lust, sloth, greed, wrath, gluttony, envy and pride; See Tables 2 and 3d-3f).
- On average, across all sins, 51% rated Trump as more sinful than Biden, and 37% of respondents rated Biden as more sinful than Trump.
- The largest gap between candidates emerged for the sins of pride and anger. Specifically,
- 49% of respondents view Trump as more prideful than Biden, whereas 20% perceive Biden as more prideful than Trump.
- 48% of respondents view Trump as more angry than Biden and 22% perceive Biden as more angry than Trump.
- Breaking out Catholics and Evangelicals, both Catholics and Evangelicals rate Trump as more sinful than Biden, although the difference is larger among Catholics.
- Among Catholics, 57% rate Trump as more sinful than Biden, and 32% rate Biden as more sinful than Trump.
- Among Evangelicals, 46% rate Trump as more sinful than Biden, and 41% rate Biden as more sinful than Trump.
